Gustav Busy weekend

AFP: "US President George W. Bush on Friday declared a state of emergency in Louisiana, freeing up federal aid. Several oil companies have evacuated workers from their installations in the Gulf of Mexico, where a quarter of US crude oil is produced." ________________________________________________________________ More than 75% of Gulf oil cut off as energy companies evacuate because of Gustav "NEW ORLEANS (AP) - More than three-quarters of the Gulf of Mexico's offshore oil production had been cut off. Energy companies have evacuated petroleum platforms in the face of Hurricane Gustav. The federal Minerals Management Service says the platform shutdowns also cut off 37% of the Gulf's daily production of natural gas. The agency says 717 staffed production platforms and 121 drilling rigs are currently operating in the Gulf. About 35,000 people work in the Gulf, staffing offshore rigs and production facilities. Forecasters say Hurricane Gustav could reach the Gulf Coast early Tuesday."

The way I see it gustav will affect sunday 2pm(us hour) the oil and gas pumps( a quarter from american petrolium ) and the results will be that monday morning everywhere will have an expensive gasoline that means the price of oil goes up and that means eur/usd goes up to , in US monday morning is holiday so we will have low volatility so traders take long on eur/usd in Sydney Tokio and London . Close watch on gustav 2pm(us hour)Sunday if strikes oil and gus pumps and if it is buy it .( My opinion)

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21/08/2008

Have a nice trade London Sesion!

Wholesale prices: Highest annual rate in 27 years

The Labor Department reports that its Producer Price Index increased by 1.2% in July and by 9.8% in the past year.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- In another indication of growing inflation, wholesale prices increased in July to the highest annual rate in 27 years, according to a government report released Tuesday.

The annual Producer Price Index for finished goods rose 9.8% in the 12 months that ended in July.

The jump in wholesale prices is the fastest rate of increase since a 10.4% bump-up in June 1981, according to Joseph Kowal, economist at the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The Labor Department also reported that PPI rose 1.2% in July, after increasing 1.8% in June. Analysts polled by Briefing.com had expected an increase of only 0.6%.

The surge in producer prices is in large part due to higher energy prices, said Doug Roberts, chief investment strategist for ChannelCapitalResearch.com.

Crude oil prices doubled in the 12 months through July, but have since fallen nearly 24% from their peak hit last month.

The latest PPI report doesn't reflect the recent drop in crude prices, but Roberts expects future readings to ease.

"The topline is a bit behind the curve - that will fall in the future," he said. "Right now, it has not really taken into account the recent decrease in energy prices."

Core inflation: The so so-called core PPI number, which excludes food and energy prices, rose by 0.7% - more than the 0.2% increase analysts had expected.

The core inflation index is "the more long term rate" because it indicates how much inflation "is seeping into the economy" beyond the volatile energy prices, said Roberts.

The index for finished goods other than foods and energy has advanced by 3.5% in the past year, according to the report.

Food and energy: The indexes that measure producers' food and energy prices increased in July, but at a more moderate pace than in the previous two months.

Energy prices rose by 3.1%, after a 6.0% jump in energy prices in June and a 4.9% jump in May. In the 12 months through July, prices for finished energy goods have surged 28%.

Food prices rose by only 0.3% in July, after increasing by 1.5% in June and 0.8% in May. In a year-over-year comparison, prices for finished consumer foods have increased by 8.7%, according to the report.

The much more moderate increase in food prices in July compared with June is the one bright spot in the otherwise glum inflation report, according to Roberts.

Even though energy prices in July were still on the rise last month, "if you are seeing the other big component of inflation go down a bit, that could indicate a positive for the future," he said.

The government reported last week that the the Consumer Price Index jumped by 0.8% in July, which was twice the increase that economists had expected.

19/08/2008

EUR/USD
______________________________________________________________

When Henry Met Fannie

There's no rest for a Treasury Secretary in a financial meltdown, as Hank Paulson is discovering. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac continue to bleed mortgage losses, and so the Treasury chief may soon have no choice but to pull the trigger on his new authority for taxpayers to recapitalize the mortgage giants.

Fan and Fred shares took another header yesterday, in the wake of a Barron's article predicting that a Treasury recap was "almost inevitable." When a single story in one day can take nearly 22% off Fannie shares, and nearly 25% off Freddie's, you know investors are scared to death.

They should be. Two weeks ago the companies added another $3.1 billion in losses to the $11 billion they'd already reported in recent quarters. Both companies slashed their dividends and warned they'd buy fewer mortgages, while being more selective about those they do buy. So much for the assertion -- made so confidently this year by Barney Frank, Chris Dodd and Chuck Schumer -- that Fan and Fred would rescue the mortgage market from the housing slump.

Instead the companies have dug an even deeper hole than have many subprime lenders. Their current run of losses are based in so-called Alt-A loans, aka "liar loans," that didn't require enough proof of borrower net worth. Fan and Fred piled into Alt-A mortgages in recent years as a way to gain market share amid the late, unlamented housing mania. No one knows how many of those loans will go belly-up before the housing market starts to turn, presumably in 2009.

Both companies insist they have adequate capital to ride this out, but they also said this before Treasury and Congress felt obliged to make explicit what had been an implicit taxpayer guarantee. Freddie still says it will raise another $5.5 billion from investors, and good luck with that. Freddie has a negative corporate net worth and a market capitalization -- after Monday's losses -- below $3 billion. Freddie holders, who have lost more than 90% of their investment in the last 12 months, may not want to double down.

Meantime, Treasury claims it has no plans to inject taxpayer money directly into the companies. Even so, Mr. Paulson has quietly hired Morgan Stanley, the investment bank, to look into "appropriate capital structures" if he does decide to sign the blank check that Congress has given him.

Robert Scully, the Morgan banker who will lead the effort, is by all accounts a straight shooter. And he will need to be, given the enormous political pressure he will soon face from Fannie Mae's defenders, both at Morgan and in Washington. Morgan Stanley says it is forgoing any other investment banking business with Fan and Fred while it works for Treasury. But until recently it was among the banks advising Freddie on that elusive $5.5 billion capital infusion.

Morgan Stanley is also home to Kenneth Posner, one of the biggest Fan and Fred cheerleaders on Wall Street. Only last March, the analyst crowed about the "complete defeat" of the "anti-GSE ideologues" -- that is, the people who had been right all long about the reckless risks the companies were taking. Mr. Posner also predicted that Fannie and Freddie would return to breakeven by the third quarter. Mr. Scully shouldn't be caught in the same intellectual area code as Mr. Posner.

A taxpayer recap for Fan and Fred would be far different than most Wall Street deals. Typically, the banker's job is to balance the competing interests of the existing shareholders with the need to raise money at a price the market will bear. That can't be the priority here. If taxpayers have to ante up, the only justification is to protect the larger financial system. Existing Fannie and Freddie shareholders should be wiped out and managers and directors lose their jobs. We think Mr. Paulson should already have eliminated managers and private holders as a price of the recent bailout legislation. But if he lets either survive after taxpayers are forced to inject cash, the Treasury chief should be run out of town.

The new law also creates a new regulator for Fannie and Freddie, and the nominee for that job hasn't yet been named. The current acting director of the newly created Federal Housing Finance Agency, Jim Lockhart, has done a capable job with the limited tools available to him and would be a fine choice. But the Bush Administration needs to act now so the Senate can vote to confirm someone in September -- not wait six months or a year hoping that the crisis will go away.

A taxpayer recap for Fan and Fred can't be a get-out-of-bankruptcy-free card. As a de facto nationalization, any plan should rein in their riskiest operations with a goal of selling their profit-making businesses to the private sector, and perhaps handing what's left of their "affordable housing" mission back to Housing and Urban Development. It's time Mr. Paulson put taxpayers ahead of Wall Street.

EUR/USD at key support level - seven years in the making!

By Ryan Teeples ( ForexFactory.com Member )
This may be a foreign concept to some forex traders, but there is some fascinating long-term technical analysis to be looked at on the EUR/USD. And when I say long-term, I mean LOOOONNG.

This long-term look is important right now because the EUR/USD is approaching a key resistance level that has been in play for over seven years!

(By the way, we have free daily analysis on the major pairs. Check them out here: http://www.pfxglobal.com/forex-curre...als-forum.html)

The double-top of the last six months has been completed, and we're looking for the pull-back that usually follows. Bulkowski explains that "When everyone sells their shares soon after a breakout, what is left is an unbalance of buying demand (since the sellers have all sold), so the price rises and pulls back to the confirmation point." On the EUR that's about 1.471. Today we're likely seeing that natural pullback.

And wouldn't you know, that pull-back is right at our six-year support line. So what happens if we get a confirmed break-through there?
ast time we broke through that support level in June '05, the line simply began acting as a resistance level, rather than support. So if the breakout is confirmed, but the pair starts trending back up, we can watch for our line to be a key resistance level.

But if we get a breakout and the trend continues downward, the line is still important for one reason: It signals a break from a seven year bullish run for the EUR/USD. Then, we start all over!

For a complete technical and fundamantal run-down of the EUR/USD, click here: http://www.pfxglobal.com/eur-usd/eur...x-trading.html

Lowe's offers downbeat 3Q outlook

NEW YORK (Associated Press) - Lowe's Cos. Inc. is offering a mixed outlook as the nation's second-largest home improvement retailer says its second-quarter profit fell 7.9 percent.

The Mooresville, N.C.-based retailer said Monday that it expects earnings per share to be in the range of 27 cents to 31 cents in the fiscal third quarter which ends Oct. 31. Thomson Reuters says analysts were expecting 33 cents a share.

The company expects total sales to increase a modest 1 to 2 percent for the quarter while sales at stores open at least a year fall 5 to 7 percent.

For the fiscal year, the company raised its earnings per share to be in the range of $1.48 to $1.56 per share. Thomson Reuters says analysts were looking for $1.50 a share for the year.

In May, Lowe's said it expected full-year profit per share of $1.45 to $1.55, down from its forecast of $1.50 to $1.58 a share in February.

The company is still sticking with its total sales growth projection of 1 percent for the year. The company predicted that same-store sales should fall 6 to 7 percent for the year.

Its shares rose 7 cents to $24.57 in morning trading after rising more than 3 percent earlier in the session

Oil Rises Above $115 as Tropical Storm Fay Nears Gulf of Mexico

ug. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose for the first time in three days as a storm near Cuba prompted evacuations from rigs and platforms in the Gulf of Mexico, which accounts for about a fifth of U.S. production.

Tropical Storm Fay, with maximum sustained winds of about 50 miles (80 kilometers) an hour, was centered 170 miles southeast of Havana, Cuba at 11 p.m. New York time and may strengthen to a hurricane before striking Florida's northwestern coast Aug. 19, the National Hurricane Center said. Crude fell to a 15-week low on Aug. 15, its second consecutive weekly decline.

``Fay is causing the market to edge up a bit,'' said Victor Shum, senior principal at consultants Purvin & Gertz Inc. in Singapore. ``The increase is also a result of an oversold market on Friday and some participants see that as a buying opportunity.''

Crude oil for September delivery rose as much as $1.52, or 1.3 percent, to $115.29 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was trading at $115.04 at 2:23 p.m. in Singapore. The contract earlier fell as low as $113.25.

New York oil futures fell 1.1 percent on Aug. 15 to settle at $113.77, having earlier in the session touched $111.34, the lowest since May 1. Prices dropped last week as the strengthening dollar curbed the appeal of commodities as a hedge against inflation and on signs of falling demand in the U.S.

Brent crude for October settlement rose as much as $1.58, or 1.4 percent, to $114.13 a barrel on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange. It was at $113.94 a barrel at 2:23 p.m. Singapore time.

The contract fell 9 cents to settle at $112.55 a barrel on Aug. 15. It reached as low as $110.31 a barrel.

Storms Disrupt

Storms routinely disrupt tanker traffic and production in the region in the North Atlantic hurricane season running June through November. In 2005, Hurricane Katrina wrecked platforms and refineries around New Orleans, prompting an international release of fuel from reserve stockpiles.

``We would have to see oil prices spike'' if Fay veers west toward Louisiana, Peter Beutel, president of energy consultant Cameron Hanover Inc. in New Canaan, Connecticut, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. ``But I don't think they'll be able to hold on to any spike, particularly if damage is minimal.''

Royal Dutch Shell Plc evacuated about 360 non-essential staff from the eastern Gulf the past two days. Production hasn't been affected. Transocean Inc., the world's largest offshore oil driller, said it evacuated 130 workers and suspended operations at several rigs in the Gulf as a precaution because of the storm.

Dollar Gains

Prices have declined 22 percent from the record $147.27 a barrel reached on July 11 as the dollar rose for a fifth week against the euro and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries warned of risks to world demand from the slowing global economy.

A report tomorrow will probably show home building in the U.S., the world's largest oil consumer, fell to the lowest pace in 17 years in July amid rising borrowing costs and record foreclosures.

``It's all about the dollar, that's what's pushing prices lower,'' said Beutel. ``If we do see a recovery in housing a lot of people expect that will lead the fed to raise interest rates and again that brings us back to the dollar. If we see weak housing data, then people will say demand seems to be dropping.''

The dollar rose 2.2 percent against the euro last week. It was at $1.4748 at 2:18 p.m. Singapore, from $1.4687 late in New York last week.

Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators increased their net-short position in New York crude-oil futures in the week ended Aug. 12, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.

Speculative short positions, or bets prices will fall, outnumbered long positions by 9,130 contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the Washington-based commission said in its Commitments of Traders report. Net-short positions rose by 3,580 contracts, or 65 percent, from a week earlier.

StockExchange in Moscow back on the green

StockExchange in Moscow has returned to green after the President announced the decision Dmitri Medvedev closing Russian military operations in Georgia.

At the beginning of the meeting, the stock exchange lost 1.9% for the index and then Micex şă gain 2.6% at 12.30 hours while Romania's RTS index gain 3.5%.

And rubla gain ground against a basket of reference set by the Russian central bank. The prospect of cessation of fighting has given a positive sign and markets of Western Europe: pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index lost only 0.22% while at the beginning of the day reached 0.8%. Stresses the oil market is reducing U.S. oil barilul delivery in September showing a recul of 1.40 U.S. dollars to 113 dollars.

14.04.2008

Economy in Europe Contracted in Second Quarter

FRANKFURT — The European economy, long resistant to the turmoil in the financial markets and in the United States, contracted in the second quarter, according to reports released on Thursday.

Gross domestic product in the 15-nation euro area declined 0.2 percent in the April-June period compared with the first quarter, the data showed, an expected but nonetheless pronounced slowdown under the pressure of slower global growth and higher food and energy prices. It was the first time since the creation of the euro currency in 1995 that quarterly growth declined in the bloc as a whole.

News from individual European countries was equally downbeat, showing that output in Germany had contracted 0.5 percent in the latest quarter. Economists anticipated the decline because Germany’s 1.2 percent growth in the first quarter had been powered by technical factors and brisk construction activity that would not be repeated.

The French economy, the second-largest in the euro zone, posted a surprising 0.3 percent decline.

“We can probably scrape by and avoid another negative quarter,” said Julian Callow, chief Europe economist at Barclays Capital. “But we are in for stagnation here.”

The euro zone’s poor showing came a day after Japan reported that its G.D.P. fell 0.6 percent in the latest quarter from the previous three months. Second-quarter growth held up better in the United States, rising 0.5 percent from the first, partly because of the billions of dollars of government stimulus checks that were mailed to taxpayers. But economists say it may not be possible to avoid a global slowdown.

No Group of 7 economy has yet been shown to be in recession, at least by the common definition of two consecutive quarters of contraction.

Mervyn King, the Bank of England governor, warned Wednesday of a “chill in the economic air,” as he raised his forecast for inflation and reduced his forecast for growth. In addition to higher inflation and the tight credit market, Britain has been hurt by a serious housing slump.

Peter Newland, an economist at Lehman Brothers in London, said the British economy would probably decline 0.1 percent in the third quarter after a weak 0.2 percent increase in the second quarter. He said the British authorities now expected growth this year to be “flat,” compared with their previous forecast for growth of about 1 percent.

The European Central Bank, mindful that the euro area was still in the grip of strong inflationary pressure because of food and energy costs, had warned against overreacting to the second quarter figures. It said that it would “look through” the quarterly volatility to ascertain the broader trends in the regional economy.

Indeed, in the full year ending in June, the euro-zone economy expanded by 1.5 percent, a solid enough figure by European standards.

Europe’s central bank raised its main interest rate target by a quarter point in July, to 4.25 percent, to combat expectations of rising inflation, and it has held out the possibility it might do so again, despite slowing growth.

However, once-resilient Germany, the locomotive of the Continent, is now buckling under the same strains that are already threatening countries including Spain and Britain with recession.

The Spanish economy eked out 0.1 percent growth in the second quarter, its slowest rate since a deep recession after the 1992 Barcelona Olympics. A collapse in construction and real estate, combined with higher interest rates and expensive energy, is rapidly draining purchasing power in Spain, and most economists expect a recession this year.

Spain’s dramatic weakening has not surprised most economists, but the same could not be said about a downturn French growth. The decline in France was the clearest sign yet that consumers, long the bright spot in that economy, are less and less willing to spend.

U.S. Foreclosures Rise 55%, Bank Seizures Reach High (Update1)

Aug. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Banks repossessed almost three times as many U.S. homes in July than a year earlier and the number of homes receiving a foreclosure notice jumped 55 percent as more homeowners defaulted on their mortgages in the face of falling prices.

Bank seizures rose 184 percent to 77,295, the steepest increase since reporting began in January 2005, RealtyTrac, an Irvine, California-based seller of foreclosure data, said today in a statement. More than 272,000 properties, or one in 464 U.S. households, got a default notice, was warned of a pending auction or were foreclosed on. Nevada, California and Florida had the highest rates.

``It's getting worse,'' Rick Sharga, RealtyTrac's executive vice president for marketing, said in an interview. ``The number of properties that have been foreclosed on by the banks and still haven't sold is the highest we've ever seen.''

Total foreclosure filings rose 8 percent from the previous month to 272,171, just shy of the record 273,001 set in May, said RealtyTrac, which has a database of more than 1.5 million properties. Through July, 775,244 properties were owned by banks, compared with about 445,000 for all of 2007 and about 224,000 in 2006, Sharga said.

Foreclosures are depressing home prices, contributing to job losses and weakening consumption as fewer people borrow against the value of their home, New York-based analysts at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. said Aug. 7.

U.S. home prices fell 15.8 percent in May, the most since at least 2001, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index. One-third of home sellers in the second quarter lost money, Zillow.com, a Seattle-based provider of home valuations, reported this week.

Seizures Increase

Bank seizures, known as real estate-owned or REO properties, are the ``fastest growing segment of foreclosure activity,'' James Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac, said in the statement. The REO properties in the company's database represent about 17 percent of the inventory of existing homes reported in June by the National Association of Realtors, he said.

Default notices in July increased 53 percent from a year earlier and auction notices rose 11 percent, RealtyTrac said.

The June total of 252,363 reflected an ``artificial depression'' due to new state laws designed to help homeowners avoid foreclosure, Sharga said.

New York, California, Massachusetts, Colorado and Maryland are among the states that have imposed temporary foreclosure moratoriums or delayed proceedings by as many as 150 days. Those laws will ``likely delay the inevitable that most of those properties go into foreclosure,'' Sharga said.

Mortgage Relief

National legislation is designed to help up to 400,000 homeowners refinance their adjustable-rate mortgages into fixed- rate loans. That bill, backed by the Federal Housing Administration, may help borrowers who take advantage of the state relief, Sharga said. Almost one-third of homeowners who bought in the last five years owe more on their mortgages than their houses are worth, Zillow reported.

Foreclosures could put 8.4 percent of total U.S. homeowners, or 12.7 percent of homeowners with mortgages, out of their homes, according to New York-based analysts at Credit Suisse. About 53 percent of subprime borrowers, those with poor or incomplete credit histories, will have negative equity in their homes this year, and that percentage will rise to 63 percent next year, the analysts said in an April 23 report.

Nevada had the highest foreclosure rate for the 19th consecutive month. One in every 106 households was in some stage of foreclosure in July, and bank seizures rose almost fivefold from a year earlier. Filings rose 15 percent from June and 97 percent from July 2007, according to RealtyTrac.

California, Florida

California had the second-highest rate, with one filing for every 182 households. Bank repossessions rose more than fivefold from a year earlier. Filings increased 5 percent from June and rose 85 percent from July 2007, RealtyTrac said.

Florida had the third-highest rate, one filing for every 186 households, while bank repossessions rose almost eightfold. Filings rose 14 percent from June and 139 percent from July 2007.

Arizona had the fourth-highest rate, followed by Ohio, Georgia, Michigan, Colorado, Utah and Virginia, RealtyTrac said.

California led with the most total filings, followed by Florida, Ohio, Arizona, Michigan, Texas, Georgia, Nevada, Illinois and New York.

New York had the 30th highest rate, one in 1,282 households. New Jersey had the 19th highest rate, one in every 751 households.

`Saturation' Point?

For the first time since April, Stockton, California, didn't have the highest metropolitan area foreclosure rate, a sign that ``it may have finally found its point of saturation,'' Sharga said.

Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Florida, had the highest rate of the 230 metro areas surveyed, one filing for every 64 households, more than seven times the national average. Three California cities followed: Merced, Stockton and Modesto. Las Vegas was fifth.

Three more California areas -- Riverside-San Bernardino, Bakersfield and Vallejo-Fairfield -- ranked sixth through eighth, Fort Lauderdale, Florida was ninth and Phoenix was 10th, RealtyTrac said.

Summer surprise: U.S. trade deficit narrows in June

In this market and this economy, you take the good news where you can get it.

Today, we got some good news: the U.S. trade deficit narrowed in June to $56.8 billion on record exports and a dip in non-oil imports, the U.S. Commerce Department announced Tuesday. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected the June trade gap to be $61.5 billion.

Exports surged 4% in June to a record $164.4 billion, the largest gain in four years. Imports increased 1.8% to a record $221.2 billion, inflated by sky-high oil prices. Oil, which traded at about $113.65 per barrel on Tuesday at mid-day, is up about 360% since 2003.

U.S. export activity has been a silver lining in the nation's otherwise anemic economy. The trade deficit has been declining for about two years, aided by a weaker dollar and demand for products in emerging market countries.

A stronger U.S. economy in Q2?

Economist David H. Wang told BloggingStocks Tuesday the June trade deficit statistic "was a really pleasant surprise," but he still wants to lower expectations.

"The high export number is the standout, and it's one that, if it continues, implies a higher rate of GDP growth for the U.S. economy in Q2, but let's not jump the gun. Economists sense there's a global economic slowing going on, exports may have peaked as a result, so this large increase in June may prove to be transitory," Wang said.

The U.S. economy grew at a 1.9% annualized rate, according to preliminary data compiled by the U.S. Commerce Department. Wang said the June trade deficit data suggests an upward revision of the Q2 data, but he sees only a modest upside revision to 2.1-2.2%.

"Exports are the only engine of growth right now, but we still have tremendous contraction forces in housing and in declining disposable income. I expect upward negative revision in those categories, so the total Q2 GDP revision will be modest, in my interpretation," Wang said.

In June, exports of industrial goods rose 8.1%, consumer goods exports increased 5.4%; concerning imports, goods imports rose 2%, while services increased 1%.

Economists prefer that a nation run a trade surplus as opposed to a trade deficit, as it usually implies that a nation's goods are competitive on the world stage, its citizens are not consuming too much, and that it's amassing capital for future investment and economic goals.

Economic Analysis: Prudent analysis from economist Wang. The June export data suggests a stronger Q2 GDP statistic, but one should never underestimate the degree to which the housing slump and high oil prices can slow U.S growth. Hence, like Wang, it's best to expect only a sight upward revision in Q2 GDP, pending additional data. The U.S. economy's health remains serious and guarded, to borrow a hospital phrase.

Friday, August 8, 2008 - New York Close - 5:23 PM EST

Friday, August 8, 2008 - New York Close - 5:23 PM EST Wowsers, what a move. But as I said yesterday, we have been in a 6-month range and I would rather let the market show me this range break is for real before acting. We are in a thin, August market with fundamentals forcing you to pick the lesser of two evils (Euro-zone economy crumbling, or American economy having already crumbled). And as a very famous trader says, ”discipline trumps conviction every time “. My discipline would not let me go short, so I did not.

We are facing support between 1.4950 and 1.4970 as shown on the daily chart below. I will wait for a 3-wave bounce before initiating short positions.

USD/JPY 06.08.2008

Click on the picture
Based on the analysis made by analysts ups/jpy has an ascending trend until the announcement at 23.50 and then if the result is procnoza analistilor between old and the result usd / jpy is domoleste and even has a small return to trend, if the result is much smaller analistilor than forecast then dollar/jpy will have a rally ascending expected, if the result will be higher than the previous result usd / jpy will have an unexpected rally descending.